Independent equity research
Evidence. Valuation. Judgment.

Independent research
for serious investors.

Company research, earnings models, and valuation scenarios to understand the business, what the market expects, and what could change the investment case.

Browse public research →
The Free Letter

Research worth following.

New public research and editorial updates, delivered directly by email.

Check your inbox to confirm your subscription.

Free. Unsubscribe anytime.

Research reports are free to read without signing up. The full weekly letter is free by email.

Know what
you own.

Understand how a business makes money, what drives its earnings, and what could weaken its earning power.

Know what
the price assumes.

See today’s valuation alongside earnings expectations, historical ranges, and different scenarios.

Know what would
change the thesis.

Follow thesis updates, changing assumptions, and evidence that could prove the investment case wrong.

The Free Letter · No. 2

Meta grew 26% and fell 9%: AI spending gets a price

Meta grew revenue 26% and its shares fell 9.4% as quarterly capital spending reached $35 billion, while chips fell again and the rest of the market rose. Earnings estimates kept rising, and next week Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Intel and Sandisk report within two days.

Read the Free Letter →
Meta grew 26% and fell 9%: AI spending gets a price
free-letter ·

Is the AI trade over, or just repricing?

The first Free Letter follows a sharp selloff in semiconductors. The question is whether AI earnings expectations have weakened, or investors are paying less for forecasts that still hold.

Investment framework ·

Staying Rich Is a Solved Problem

The index is the bar every pick has to beat, and it’s also where I’ll park the money once I’m done climbing.

Start with the Free Letter

Keep following the research.

New public research and editorial updates, delivered directly by email.

Check your inbox to confirm your subscription.

Free. Unsubscribe anytime.